My 2 year-old son is a Candyland shark.
Candyland, the classic children's game, is currently one of his favorite pastimes. He will typically ask me to play with him, and it's tough to resist when he asks so politely. Besides, I enjoy the competition.
The trouble is that these Candyland games do not seem to be very competitive at all.
Since I began tracking it, we've played 9 times. Here are our records in those games:
MBB: 1-8
Son-of-MBB: 8-1
In other words, he's won 88.9% of our contests.
In know what you're all saying now.
"How can you draw any conclusions on such a small sample size? You're making a mockery of the statistical process!"
I understand your skepticism. However, consider how may times we draw conclusions from infinitesimally small sample sizes, while ignoring the larger field of data. It's incorrect, but it's also ingrained in our psyche.
Besides, it's not like he's just eking out victories. His average margin of victory is more than 10 spaces on the board. He's not just winning, he's beating me like a rented mule.
Perhaps the most unnerving part of it is how he manages to maintain his cool at all times, even when the game turns stressful. For instance, yesterday, during one of our games, he was way out in front, only a "double purple" from securing yet another easy victory, when he drew a card with a picture of a swirly lollipop on it, sending him back around thirty spaces, to a spot roughly between the Ice Palace (presided over by Princess Frostine) and Lollypop Woods (the domain of Princess Lolly). Meanwhile, I had been wallowing in the area of Licorice Lagoon, quite certain that I was well on my way to yet another humiliating defeat. Now, I had a new lease on life in this game. For him, though, this was a minor setback. He actually seemed almost happy to have drawn that card! Completely shaken by his cool demeanor, I played badly the rest of the way, and he won easily, entering the Candy Castle before I had even reached Chocolate Mountain.
The kid is a Candyland machine.
I'll probably win a couple of our next few games, you know, the whole "reversion to the mean" thing, but I'm not sure that I'll ever be able to win consistently, or even to breakeven over the long run.
So, if he ever asks any of you to play Candyland, I suggest that you agree, but prepare yourself. You're probably not going to win.
3 comments:
beaten like a rented mule, huh?
It's QUEEN Frostine.
Anyway, the game is luck, so don't start thinking he could beat Gary Kasbarov or something some time in the near future.
surely you have suspected that the Boy rigs the deck and therefore you shuffle to counteract that?
if not, that would explain a lot...
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