Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Gas Station Sushi

The shopping has continued with varying success, but at least I have something to blog about.

In the mall last night we were walking between shoe stores and came upon a kiosk type structure divided into three parts. Each section had in it a large chair, the kind you would expect to see in a dental office, or other examination type room. The chair was stark white, reclined, had an attached foot stool, and above the chair, attached to a bar above each section was a light on a retractable arm hovering over the chair. The whole decor was very stark white giving off a very sterile vibe. This was a new innovation, the fifteen minute tooth whitening kiosk from the people at Nu Smile. In just 15 minutes you can have whiter teeth if you sit in the chair, and let the guy who last week ran the celebrity portrait kiosk, put a chemical in your mouth and shine a light on it.

So how does this work? You're walking in the mall with someone, and they say: "I could really go for a Starbucks right now." You reply: "I'm not in the mood, I think I'll have my teeth whitened instead."

I did not want to engage the "professional" long haired fellow running this booth, so I did not stop to find out how much this would actually cost, but I'm assuming a little more than a latte from an overpriced coffee vendor.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Eastern (Mental) Bloc

By now, just about everyone has heard about CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations), CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) and CDSs (Credit Default Swaps), and the negative impact they've had on the balance sheets of all sorts of financial institutions.

However, while these "toxic assets" are household names, there is another, insidious acronym lurking out there, which is far less well-known.

The evil item in question is what I'll refer to as a "CSO," or "Comedic Sensory Overload."

Not surprisingly, as with CDOs, CLOs and CDSs, it reared its ugly head while I was listening to Bloomberg radio, an all-business news station owned by FBB's favorite mayor. One morning this week, as I was listening to the station on my way to work, I heard the following: "...And we've got some breaking news coming over the wire. The Hungarian Central Bank has decided to leave interest rates unchanged."

My first thought upon hearing this "breaking news" was, "Hungary has a central bank?"

I then spent the next five minutes announcing, to no one in particular, in my best sing-song Hungarian accent, "These rates are verrry nice. We do not want to change them. We want the interest rates to always look the same, so we will put plastic covers on them."

Funny stuff, indeed.

The next day, however, another news flash got me into some trouble.

The same announcer said, "We've just received word that the National Bank of Poland has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points."

Within nanoseconds, it seemed as though every synapse in my brain began to fire. I opened my mouth to utter some snarky witticism (again, to no one in particular), and...nothing.

Not. A. Thing.

The problem was that I had too many funny thoughts hitting me at the same time, and they canceled each other out.

This, my friends, is a textbook case of CSO.

Much to my chagrin, this is not a short-term condition.

Even now, many hours later, I am simply incapable of summoning any humorous thoughts about the Polish "Fed" cutting interest rates. I even read the official press release...and it made complete sense. I found myself thinking, "Of course they lowered rates, considering the decline in industrial production in the fourth quarter."

What kind of nasty condition is this which robs a man of the ability to make fun of the Polish Central Bank?

For now, I'll just have to move on, and focus my thoughts relating to Eastern European Central Banks on the Hungarians.

The Central Bank of Hungary, you say?

They must have one heck of a chandelier in the lobby of that building.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Shopping Part II

So I took the girls (15 and 13)shopping today after bringing home loads of stuff the other day for them to try on. I'm not sure which is harder: going back and forth to buy and return, or taking them with me so that I can see their convoluted sense of fashion.

I'm not sure what look they're trying to achieve. On the one hand my taste is "old," and on the other they are trying to dress like women twice their age. It makes no sense.

Really what I want to know is when did color become a bad word? Everything is black and white...or white and black. They passed over the beautiful pastels, and luscious hues of blue and zeroed right in on the black and white. Mostly black. What is wrong with these children?!?!?

They choose styles that look awful on them, and turn their noses up at styles that flatter them.

I was never like that.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Too Cliched?

You know how they say it's a stereotype because it's true? Well....

Let me just say that I have two teenage girls and we have just started the season of shopping.

Shoot me now.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Minnesota Mini-Golf

In the previous post, FBB mentioned our mini-golf game at the Mall of America.

Let me provide some more detail.

As she mentioned, I won by about 10 strokes. (You can be sure that I wouldn't be blogging about it if I had lost).

At the outset, it appeared as though it could be a long afternoon for good ol' MBB. FBB broke out to an early lead, aided by a hole-in-one on the 3rd hole.

Meanwhile, I was playing okay, but was just missing on some of my longer putts. This didn't bother me too much, however, because it indicated to me that I was putting well, and had plenty of time to stage a comeback.

So, despite a couple of disappointing shots, my short game was clearly on. I was more-or-less sizing up the distance properly, and really reading the breaks in the green. As everyone in the mini-golf world knows, when MBB's short game is on, everyone else is playing for 2nd place.

Right about the 6th hole, I started to turn things around, draining some long ones. By the halfway point, I was slightly ahead. On the back nine, I put on a putting clinic, leaving FBB in my wake. In retrospect, I should've taped my performance on holes #11-17, then sold it as an instructional video on the Golf Channel. (Just three easy installments of $9.99, plus $4.50 for shipping and handling. While supplies last).

Overall, I was pleased by my performace. It wasn't as good as the time we played in Florida a few months ago, when I scorched the course so badly there was smoke coming out of the windmill on the 15th hole. Still, it was pretty good.

I'm looking forward to our next round.

Monday, March 16, 2009

A Long Rambling Post

So we had a great time in Minneapolis over the weekend. We actually spent the weekend in St. Louis Park, a suburb of Minneapolis, and luckily it was really quite warm. The day before we came the high was 14, but all weekend it didn't really dip below forty. The sidewalks were slushy and waterlogged, but the street drainage was excellent. At one point we passed a sidewalk that had about two inches of water on it. I guess if the temperature dips, someone could go skating out there!

A few cousins stayed for the weekend festivities, and one who was supposed to go home Friday ended up staying because "the pilot didn't show up." Hmmm. If that's the best the airline could come up with, how bad is the truth? Granted, the pilot could have been passed out drunk somewhere, and in that case, I guess the passengers should be pleased that he didn't show up. I'm thinking more likely the airline preferred to charter out the plane/crew then send a half empty flight to Philadelphia. Already the night before, when this couple tried to print boarding passes they were told the flight was overbooked so they weren't assigning seats. They got to the airport early, and based on the gate attendance at boarding time, there's no way the flight was overbooked.

It ended up well for them, because they were more than happy to stay. Someone else left on Friday and had to decline an offer of a $300 voucher if she would switch to a flight going into Laguardia instead of JFK. She had checked luggage so she was not eligible.

When we got to the hotel on Thursday we went to check in. The rate we had gotten was a special rate for the wedding, but we figured what the heck, and we asked for an upgrade. We said last time we were here you upgraded us to the club level, could you do that again? First she said she wasn't sure, because we were part of the wedding, and then she said "OK, I've moved you up." That was very coool. I don't know if the rooms are different, but you get access to the the "club room" which is coffee and soda all day and breakfast (which we didn't use)in the morning. Also, you need to use your room key to access the elevator to your floor. Lesson: Ask for the upgrade. It can't hurt.

We rented a car too. I don't know if the rates are really cheap there, or if we just got a great deal, but we added GPS. We could have walked away with it too, because when we got on the shuttle back to the airport after dropping off the car, there was no mention of the GPS anywhere on the bill. We called and they put it on, but I don't know if anyone would have known had we walked off with it. So why did we rent a car? It actually came out to less than if we would have taken a cab from downtown to the burbs, and then a cab back to the airport (though we may have gotten a ride for that). But really? We needed a place for our stuff on Friday. We ended up going to the Mall Of America. There is a light rail from downtown to the Mall, but we had luggage, and it's hard to play mini golf when you're pulling a suitcase behind you.

There was a time when I would beat MBB at mini golf. Now I start off a few strokes ahead, but he gets focused and I get cocky, so he ends up ahead by about 7-10 strokes. I need to refocus.

Saturday night we went bowling with a bunch of cousins. It was really fun. Especially when one guy, who hardly EVER bowls, was throwing down strikes and spares and looked as shocked as the rest of us!

Sunday we left, and stopped at a place called Breadsmith on the way to the airport. MBB scored sourdough bread which is hard to come by in these parts, and I got a mini greek olive ciabatta bread that was heavenly. It was crusty and salty and olivey, and just delicious. The cinnamon buns and scones weren't too shabby either.

Interesting thing about the Minneapolis airport that is different from a lot of airports: Once you go through security you can go to any concourse or any gate. It's a massive airport, but I think it's pretty and not a bad place to kill an hour. Luckily we were not delayed, and since we got the tickets with miles, the best return flight only had a first class availability. So we went first class. WOO HOO! We got water before we took off! They did also serve a free meal which we declined (it cost 5 bucks in the back), and we got out of the plane first. The seat was really nice and roomy, and I fell asleep for about an hour.

The shuttle to our off site parking showed up right away, and when we got there I went in to pay, (with my trusty coupon that my brother (the attorney!!!)suggested)and everything was going great. Until I overheard a woman on the phone crying that her car had been stolen out of the lot. Man, that ain't worth $8 a day! Now, she was no longer at the counter, or talking to anyone at the parking lot so I assume I missed most of the drama. The Police came right about then. All I could think was if this was me, I would walk around the ENTIRE lot just to make sure no one had moved the car. I would check hotel parking, too This lot is on site of a hotel). The sad thing is I doubt the cops will really investigate this, but I would check all the employees. This lot has a guy in a booth you have to pass as you enter/leave. He opens his window and yells "EZ WAY?" you say yes and he waves you on. No reciept needed, no token, nothing. To get in there is a lif gate, but he opened it right away for the shuttle driver so access onto the lot is not that hard. (If you don't work there you need to take a ticket and then the gate opens. You don't do anything with that ticket, it just opens the gate) This could totally be an inside job. Drive the car off the lot, and return the keys. This is Newark. I'm sure there is SOMEWHERE you can get a set of keys made. I feel really bad for this woman. Here you think you parked all safe and secure and BOOM!!! Car's gone. It was a brand new truck. Things went smoothly for us, and we went home.

The kids were happy to see us, and now it's back to real life.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Regards From The Chilly Midwest

MBB and I are in cold Minnesota for a wedding of a cousin. We're here for the weekend, which should be nice, it's great seeing all the different cousins, espescially since so many of them live no-where near us.

So to all our loyal followers we just wanted to say hi. I love to feel important by going into the hotel business center! Though this is the only night we'll be in the hotel, after this we're being put up in the suburbs to participate in the festivities, so it's a little harder to get internet access. Espescially as a stay-home Mom, it's hard to explain WHY I would need to use the internet on a friday afternoon/saturday night/sunday morning. Perhaps I'll use "printing my boarding pass" as a guise under which I could access the internet. I'm a very busy woman. I need to run my blog, check the local paper, and my e-mail.

My Grandmother and many of her kind (german)were very, very into mail. Like "when is it coming" and "is it here yet?" and "I can't stay at your house too long because I need my mail." I think I have become this. Not envelopes and mailboxes, but e-mail. And what do I get already? If I wasn't on various mailing lists my inbox would stay empty for days! Just knowing though, that it's possible that there's good mail in there makes me need to check.

And no, I am not getting a blackberry, or any device of its kind. I don't need Gap to let me know about it's spring collection when I'm in Walmart.

I gotta go get dressed. It's a little hard to explain why you're late to a wedding when your commute consists of an elevator ride to the lobby.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Can't Wait For Next Year

Purim was really fun. The kids had a great time, their costumes looked great and they were just happy all day. Well, not so much the little one, but in the end I think she was OK. She didn't love being in the car for so long. At one point when we got to my friend's house we were all getting out of the car. She started shouting: "me, me" I guess she wanted to come in too! I noticed something cool about my kids. No matter how cumbersome the parts, they really keep their costumes on all day. I think that's pretty neat.


The party was great. My nephew who is a really talented kid, played his keyboard pretty much when anybody asked him to. So he did not have the opportunity to dance or even sit at the table (glug,glug) as long as he may have liked. Selfishly, it made things great for everyone else. My crazy brother (the attorney!!!)sang without his pants (not as crazy as it seems, trust me)and everyone danced, and ate and drank, and danced, and people dropped by, and danced more, and more people came, and more dancing, and then someone turned off the lights and everyone was singing slow songs while nephew played. Two signs it was Purim, or the end of the world, (you decide):

1. MBB sat on the floor and participated in this singing.

2. My father was lifted on to someone's shoulders and danced around for more than 10 seconds!

It was really great fun with the kids busy throwing poppers outside, and just great company Aunts, Uncles, Grandparents, Cousins - it's so nice to get together with family.

It was really loads of fun!

So two funny things happened. A few days before Purim I was talking to my Aunt (the one I share a Costco membership with, and we had just gotten our 2% cash back check/renewal notice), and at the end of the conversation I said:

"Hey, since no one is home anymore, I just wanted to remind you that your girls used to bring me all the Marzipan that you get, because no one in your house likes it."

To which she replied:

"I LOVE Marzipan!! I was wondering why no one ever sends it anymore!"

I brought her Marzipan on Purim. Lucky for me TWO people gave me Marzipan, both because they know how much I love it.

The second story is about my kids.

On Monday night, right around midnight, MBB and I went out on the deck, to light up a cigar (for me). My kids freaked out. They were screaming:

"You're going to die!!! Second hand smoke!!! Don't Mommy, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!"

Then I lit it.

They watched me take one puff, and then another, and they said:

"Are you addicted?"

Monday, March 9, 2009

YIKES!!!

Wow, it's been a while since we've put anything up, so here are some rambling thoughts.

I hate Michael Bloomberg. He is a fascist elitist nanny, who is making the city great for tourist and unlivable for anyone who has anything to do in the city beyond taking pictures with the Naked Cowboy. Turning the main part of Broadway into a pedestrian walkway may work in Europe where nobody works (or wants to)anyway. Around here, people like to get to work, get to hospitals, and bring their cars to the city to spend money. If you live anywhere in the NY metropolitan area other than Manhattan, Michael Bloomberg has no use for you, or your use of the city (see:congestion pricing).

I hate the Van Wyck Expressway. I went to a party last night on Long Island. On the way home my dear brother (the attorney!!)called me in his usual frantic state to tell me that he got a call from someone that the Van Wyck was a mess, do I know another way to go. I told him that I did not, but also, that the Van Wyck, is the Van Wyck and that's just the way it is. AND IT'S SO STUPID THAT IT IS THAT WAY!!!!! BECAUSE NINE TIMES OUT OF TEN THERE IS NO REASON FOR THE BACKUP! It just suddenly opens up. BOOM! If ever you needed a visual of the splitting of the sea, this is a pretty good approximation.

The truth is, most city highways' are lousy, and the signage is either out of date or useless. LANE ENDS. No kidding? Why couldn't you tell me, say, TEN FEET before it ended?!? I'm sure it's a union thing. or a mob thing. A highway department guy goes out to put up the sign, far enough away that a diver has enough room to actually move over in time (if they would want to, of course),when two other guys come up to him:

Big GUys: Hey, whatcha doin'

Highway guy: I'm puttin' my sign heer.

BGs: Oh no youse not. This heer is our road and youse ain't gonna put yer sign on it.

HG: But how will peoples know the lane ends?

BGs: We will allow you to put yer sign were it actually ends. we wouldn't want anyone to crash...hahahahaha

HG: OK. My union does not allow me to argue or attempt a second effort in anyway.



There are actually things I like a lot, but perhaps that should wait for a day when I've actually had something to eat.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

There Ain't No Dunkin' Donuts

So today is exciting for me. Back in December I went to visit my sister in Michigan. Today she is coming here, albeit she is bringing her two year old daughter, and she bought her a seat for the plane AND she's still paying about $5 more total than what I paid in December. I don't know how they stay in business.

So tonight, in honor of our parents' anniversary we (all the siblings) are taking them out to eat in the city. Picking the place was easy, for a change, because we have a voucher for free wine, appetizers and desserts at a specific place. Why do we have this generous voucher? Because we are idiots.

For those unsure, I can attest to the fact that being stupid in this country will get you rewarded. Perhaps it is wrong to make big general statements based on one incident, but I'm doing it anyway.

Last August, when said sister was here visiting, the siblings got together in the city having made a reservation at this particular establishment. Reservation for 10. We all got there on time, we found decent parking on the street (not always an easy feat in Manhattan, but a savings of about $30)and went inside to let them know we had arrived. Apparently, they were not ready for us, since they had seated another large party a few hours earlier, and those people had not yet left the premises. It was a beautiful summer evening so we stood outside talking while we waited. Mistake #1. We should have stood inside the restaurant, in all our loud boisterous glory, so that they would have to deal with us. We made it easy for them so they never had to tell us, "you know what? These people are really not leaving, we can't help you tonight." Finally, at one point, we all decided to walk to another place nearby. We left. But as we got around the corner it dawned on us that the second place was much more expensive. So before we made a decision to go elsewhere, we all went back just "to see" if perhaps our table was ready. WE WENT BACK!!!! Elapsed time: about 45 minutes. We spent the next half an hour alternately waiting and arguing (we're good at that) about where to go instead, until finally it was so late that one sibling had to get back home, his babysitter had a curfew. At this point the only option was a fast food place. Most of us left our cars and either walked or hitched a ride with babysitter brother to get there.

It was wacky. The next morning other brother, an attorney, wrote an e-mail to the manager who was not there the night before, describing what happened and our 90 minute wait that yielded us nothing but sore feet. The manager apologized, and offered the aforementioned vouchers, we we hope to use tonight.

We'll keep you posted......

Monday, March 2, 2009

Groping For the (Stock Market's) Bottom

So much for that potential buy signal.

Yesterday, we wrote:

If the market withstands a test of the bear market lows, it can move higher...However, if the [S&P 500] Index falls further, say a close below the 725 level, that will mark a bearish trading signal, as the market continues to make lower lows


The market never had a chance today, opening lower, and deteriorating as the day progressed. At the closing bell, the S&P 500 stood at 700.82, down 4.7% for the day, and breaking below any conceivable technical support level.

Now, based on a cursory read of the charts, it would appear that the S&P 500 could actually fall all the way to the 600 area, representing a decline of another 15% or so from these already beaten-down levels.

Admittedly, at this stage, there would seem to be much more room to the upside for stocks, while further downside could be somewhat limited. However, the recent trading activity suggests that it will now be quite some time before a meaningful, sustained rally in the stock market can take place.

This development is a bit discouraging for those, like myself, who were waiting on the sidelines for a buy signal. Over the past few weeks, it appeared that the market was putting in a nice bottom. Now, it's clear that we don't know where - or when - the low point for this bear market will occur.

In the classic investment book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre (without question the greatest book ever written about the field of investing), the protagonist, Larry Livingston (a very thinly veiled reference to the legendary trader Jesse Livermore) proclaims "It was never my thinking that made me money but my sitting tight."

In this regard, we're certainly in a "Livermore market" right now. Several blue chip stocks have appeared to be favorably priced for a few months now, but have continued to make lower lows. Using perhaps the bluest of blue chips as an example, GE looked cheap at $16 per share in early January, cheaper still at about $11 in early February, and seems like a downright bargain at less than $8 today. Imagine if you had bought GE back when it was "cheap." Talk about trying to catch a falling knife!

At this point, "sitting tight" seems like an awfully good strategy.

So, what should an investor do with his/her cash?

Buy canned goods.

They have a long shelf life, and there's a great variety of products available in this type of package.

The cans can also be used as paperweights, if needed, or even makeshift rolling pins.

Given the importance of portfolio diversification, I would strongly recommend buying many different types of canned foods. Try string beans and corn niblets. Peaches and plums. Tomato sauce and tomato paste (perhaps pizza sauce, if you're a higher risk/higher reward type of investment). Mushrooms are also a good part of any well-balanced can portfolio.

I'd also recommend a small allocation to non-canned products, just for a bit of further diversification.

I think that a nice pastry would make a particularly good investment. If you're interested in cross-border diversification, consider adding some exposure to the French (eclair), Italian (cannoli) and Austrian (strudel) markets. If current income/yield is important to you, focus on something with a cream filling or topping.

In general, short-term (less than a day old) pastry is a nearly risk-free investment, and tends to be a whole lot tastier than Treasuries.

As for the aforementioned Mr. Livermore, he died in November 1940, approximately 17 years after "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" was published. The man widely recognized as one of the greatest stock and commodity market traders of the early part of the 20th century blew his brains out in the coatroom of the Sherry Netherland Hotel, across the street from Central Park. He was penniless at the time of his death.

Maybe he should've bought some nice cheese danishes instead.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Still Stuck in the Bear's Claws

About a month ago, we detailed the stock market's dismal performance during the month of January.

As it turned out, February was even worse.

Using the S&P 500 Index as our measuring stick (consistent with IcebergCarwash policy), the market declined another 11% in February.

With two months in the books, here are some quick facts on where the market stands to this point in 2009:

* The S&P 500 Index is off 18.6% since the start of the year. That represents the worse performance on record for the first two months of the year.

* The Index has declined in five out of the past six months.

* Friday's close marked the lowest level for the S&P 500 since December 1996.

Friday's market action was particularly disturbing, as the S&P 500 closed at a new low, albeit still within range of the lows established in November 2008.

This is important, because from a technical analysis ("chartist") standpoint, when a market establishes a new low, it usually needs to re-test that low once or twice (or more) before a sustained rally can take place. This week's activity appeared to represent a re-test of the November lows. On a few occasions, the market seemed to bounce off those lows, in intraday trading, indicating that perhaps the lows would hold. This would actually have been a decently bullish signal. However, by breaking below the low, it is now possible that a new "floor" needs to be established, and it will be quite a while before the market can move meaningfully higher.

Think of it as a Groundhog Day for the stock market. If the market withstands a test of the bear market lows, it can move higher. If not, we need to go back into our respective holes in the ground, and the long, cold stock market winter will continue.

Given that Friday's closing level on the S&P 500 is still within range of the recent lows, it's too early to tell. However, if the Index falls further, say a close below the 725 level, that will mark a bearish trading signal, as the market continues to make lower lows. Needless to say, we should keep a close eye on Monday's action. A continuation of Friday's decline would be particularly disconcerting.

From a fundamental standpoint, on the other hand, stocks look cheap. Whether you base your valuations on dividend yields compared to Treasury yields (even after discounting for the inevitable dividend reductions, see GE), P/E ratios (adjusting your earnings estimates for a worst-case scenario), price/net book value (the ghost of Benjamin Graham haunts the canyons of lower Manhattan once again!) or some other methodology, the stock market looks oversold right now. However, all that tells you is that at some point in the future, stocks should be higher than they are now. From an amateur chartist's perspective, that could take a few years to materialize.

Unless we get our buy signal.


For now, things look rather bleak.

Then again, look at the bright side.

The market can't possibly perform worse in March than it did in January and February.

Or can it?

Maybe I'll ask Punxsatawney Phil at our lunch meeting this week.

Anyone out there have a recipe for alfalfa pie?