Welcome (Once Again) to the Soothsayer's Ball

It’s that time of year again.

Actually, it’s a bit past that time of year again.

We’re getting a late start, but with only three trading days left in the year, there’s still time for…

The 3rd Annual Iceberg Carwash Stock Market Contest.

The rules are simple, and unchanged from previous years.

Using the comments section, tell us where you think the S&P 500 Index will be at the end of 2011.

To qualify for entry into the contest, your forecast must be received by no later than the market’s open on the first trading day of next year, 9:30 AM EST on Monday, January 3, 2011.

The contestant whose prediction comes closest to the actual closing level of the Index at year-end wins the contest.

Perhaps we’ll give out a prize, although I tend to feel that the prestige of winning such a contest should be reward enough for any right-minded individual.

For reference, the S&P 500 closed yesterday at 1258.51, up 12.9% so far in 2010.

My prediction for the S&P 500 Index’s level at the end of 2011 is 1,130.00. I’m fairly certain that we’ll get a correction in the stock market during the first quarter of the year, and then trade mostly sideways after that.

We’ll announce the winner of the 2010 contest sometime over this coming weekend.

One thing that is already pretty certain is that for the second year running I will not win the contest.

Perhaps I need to go back to the drawing board, and tweak my stock-picking algorithm.

Or, deliver a sharply-worded pep talk to my dart-throwing monkey.