Much like a bear emerging from his cave after a winter's hibernation, or the Ayatollah Khomeini returning to Iran in 1979 after years of exile, I have returned to IcebergCarwash (barely) in time to uphold one of this blog's most cherished traditions.
Yes, readers, it is time for...
The 4th Annual Iceberg Carwash Stock Market Contest.
The rules remain as simple as ever.
Using the comments section, tell us where you think the S&P 500 Index will be at the end of 2012.
To qualify for entry into the contest, your forecast must be received by no later than the market’s open on the first trading day of next year, 9:30 AM EST on Tuesday, January 3, 2012.
The contestant whose prediction comes closest to the actual closing level of the Index at year-end wins the contest.
I know that we've given out a prize to the contest's winner in the past, but we make no guarantees about doing so in the future.
For reference, the S&P 500 closed today at 1249.64. With two trading days remaining in the year, the market is down about 0.7% so far in 2011. In technical terms, we refer to that as "flat."
My prediction for the S&P 500 Index’s level at the end of 2012 is 1,350.00.
We’ll announce the winner of the 2011 contest sometime over this coming weekend.
There are so many fundamental factors to consider when projecting the market's direction in the coming year.
Will the European sovereign debt crisis be resolved?
Will the Euro remain intact?
Where will commodity prices go, and what impact would a rotation out of "hard assets" have on equity prices?
Has the U.S. housing market finally hit bottom? Will buyers make a dent in the enormous inventory of unsold homes?
Will the jobs market finally improve?
How will the presidential election, only a little more than 10 months away, affect the direction of U.S. stock prices?
Will the wheels come off (or will the lead paint peel off) the Chinese economic machine?
These, and other important potential issues, must be considered when attempting to predict where the market will be a year from now.
Alternatively, make sure that no one is standing too close to your dart board.
11 comments:
1412
I still want to know who won last year
Well, the market is not done yet for the year, but probably Rabbim.
We will announce the winner On December 31 or January1
Correction, FBB.
We will announce the winner when we feel like it.
(We will probably feel like doing it on January 1st or 2nd).
So I guess I will be back to check in Jan 1st or 2nd
I say 1576.58 I have no clue what all the numbers mean but I need stocks that grandma got for me to go up.
So my swami's turban feels a little tight after getting so close in 2011. Me and the monkeys are having a bit of trouble settling down on a single number this year... they need some more time...
1375
I am thinking that by Dec 31, 2012, President-elect Romney's choice of MBB as Secretary of Treasury will have calmed the markets and spurred optimism. So I would go with a 10% increase but I see KWBSLKM already has that... so let's go flat again: 1,260
1315.26
1,156.93.
Like you said, MBB, there are a lot of factors to consider. While I think we should be on our way up, developments such as Iran's threat to close the strait of Hormuz and Ron Paul's threat to destroy America's chances at a comeback may make a difference.
I'm keeping in mind, though, that some of my factors might just be flash in the pan stories. And the fact that we're all just guessing anyhow
If anonymous wins, there will be no prize. Thus is the consequence of anonymity
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