Probability Theory

Earlier this week, I found myself in the checkout line at a Quick Check in central New Jersey (which beats finding a worm in your apple), preparing to pay for a 32-ounce, carbonated, mostly sugar-free, caramel-colored, caffeine-containing beverage. I anticipated a rather easy, fast transaction. I was in a bit of a hurry, which probably explains why I was in that store in the first place, and hadn't decided to take my chances at the Extremely Slow Check (also known as the Sunoco A+ Mini Market).

Much to my chagrin, there was a line at the checkout counter. There were four people in front of me. Not a problem, I figured. These lines tend to move rather quickly; this would result in just a minor inconvenience for me. Unfortunately, the people in front of me were all buying lottery tickets. Apparently, the SuperDuperMegaPowerballLottoBlowout jackpot was somewhere in the area of $100,000,000.

Ah, yes, the lottery. Or, as I like to call it, the Stupid Tax. Amazingly, this quartet of Pascal's disciples was actually trying to pick specific numbers. This is a brilliant concept. Using one's brother's birthday as the basis for lottery numbers has been proven to improve one's odds of winning from 103,578,901-1 to 102,498,091 to 1. Hey, I've got an idea. Instead of playing his birthday, why not play your brother's zip code? This way, I can try to figure out exactly where he lives, drive over there, and slap him around for having such a loser sibling.

Eventually, the desired numbers were chosen, the soon-to-be-worthless papers were printed out, and the State of New Jersey collected more Stupid Tax. I approached the register to pay for my beverage, already in a less-than-charitable mood. The woman at the register looked at me, and said:

"Would you like to buy a lottery ticket?"

"Yeah, sure," I replied. "This way, when I'm driving back to the office, if a leprechaun pops out of a storm drain next to my car while I'm waiting at a red light, and he offers to hand me his large pot of gold coins in exchange for a small piece of paper with a bunch of numbers randomly printed on it, I'll be prepared...and very rich."

I know that some of you who are reading this are offended by my "winning the lottery/meeting an incredibly generous leprechaun" analogy, and the implication that the odds of either event occurring are roughly the same. "Someone wins the lottery," you're thinking, "and leprechauns aren't even real." To which I reply, "If leprechauns aren't real, why do we all know exactly what they look like?" (MBB puts the "p-a-r-t-y" in "witty repartee.")

Of course, I didn't actually say that thing about the leprechaun. I thought it. Which might be an even more powerful statement.

Here's what actually happened:
Woman Behind the Checkout Counter (WBCC): "Would you like to buy a lottery ticket?"
Me (in a barely audible mumbling tone, not making eye contact): "No, thanks."
WBCC (scanning my beverage): "That'll be $1.06, please." (MBB's note: That's a pretty good deal, by the way).
Me (handing over two $1 bills): "Here you go."
WBCC (in a slightly annoyed tone of voice): "You don't have any change?"
Me (remembering that all of my coinage - enough to weigh my car down to the extent that my vehicle's fuel efficiency is about 0.15 miles/gallon lower than it should be - is sitting in my car): "Uh, no. Sorry." (That last word was said in so sheepish a manner that it triggered flashbacks to my childhood, when my mother would interrogate me with impossible-to-answer questions such as "You called your teacher what? Where'd you even learn that word?")

Still feeling a bit ashamed, I then proceeded to slink out of the store, my outward mannerisms belying the feeling of superiority I now possessed, knowing full well that I was above buying a lottery ticket.

I took a triumphant sip of my beverage, and declared, to no one in particular, "I spit on the lottery, and its foolish so-called 'jackpot.'"

I then got into my car and drove off, hoping that I would run into a leprechaun who needed to exchange a $50 bill for a nice mix of quarters, dimes, nickels and pennies.