The Prize Ceremony

For those of you who couldn't join us for the prize ceremony, in which we awarded the Winner of our First Annual IcebergCarwash Stock Market Prediction Contest, we provide this picture:




Next year this can be you!!!

And The Winner Is...

The S&P 500 Index closed the year at 1115.10, 23.5% higher than its closing price at the end of 2008. While on the surface that seems like a good performance, consider that the S&P 500 is still 24% below its year-end 2007 level, and nearly 30% below its late 2007 peak. It was an extremely volatile year, considering that the Index ranged from a low of 666.79 in March, to the recent high of 1130.38. The stock market's rally off of the March lows has been nothing short of extraordinary, and doesn't seem to be entirely supported by the fundamentals. I'd have to think that we'll see a correction (defined - for our purposes - as a 10% decline from a peak) sometime during the first quarter of 2010. However, in a larger sense, given the more stable nature of recent corporate earnings (fueled almost entirely by cost-cutting efforts) and the persistent, extremely low level of interest rates and bond yields, stocks do not seem to be that badly overpriced.

Now that we have a final 2009 reading on the U.S. stock market, we can officially determine the winner of The First Annual IcebergCarwash Stock Market Prediction Contest.

Here were the entries, showing both the projected closing level of the S&P 500 Index, as well as the projected return:

MBB 1034.00 (projected 2009 return of 14.5%)
Wolfman (1) 1625.00 (79.9%)
Wolfman (2) 434.00 (-52.0%)
firstpob_moo 1100.00 (21.8%)
Doobie 1489.00 (64.8%)
fil 519.00 (-42.5%)

As you can see, the winner is firstpob_moo, with a prediction that came within only 2% of the actual result. As they say in the South, "that's some fancy predictin'."

As the winner of the contest, firstpob_moo will be presented with the prize we revealed in the previous post, also known as "The T-Shirt of Knowledge and Coolness."

Thank you to all of our contestants. Predictions aside, when the stock market goes up, we all win. Unless, of course, you shorted the market. In which case, the SEC believes you are behind the current economic malaise. So, congratulations for being the root of all financial evil. (Everybody wins at IcebergCarwash).

As a reminder, it's not too late to join the 2010 contest. Just go to this post, and enter your prediction in the comments section. Entries must be received before 9:30AM EDT on Monday, January 4, 2010.

The Crystal Ball Convention

With only three trading days left in 2009, it's time for our highly-anticipated contest:

The 2nd Annual IcebergCarwash Stock Market Prediction Contest.

In introducing the contest a year ago, we indicated that the winner of the contest would win a "prize." Surely, our legion of readers scoffed at this notion. However, thanks to the efforts of FBB, IcebergCarwash's Chief Provisioning Officer (CPO), we have a very nice prize indeed, which will be awarded to the winner of the 2009 contest in just a few days.



Of course, there's no guarantee that the winner of the 2010 edition of the contest will receive anything as cool as the 2009 prize, but we will try to scrounge up something neat.

Especially if I win.

The contest rules are simple. Using the comments section of this post, tell us where you think the S&P 500 Index will be at the end of 2010. For reference, the S&P 500 closed today at 1127.78. The person whose prediction for the closing level of the index comes closest to the actual year-end result will win the contest.

Predictions may be submitted up until the stock market opens for business in 2010, at 9:30AM EDT on Monday, January 4, 2010. There is no charge for entering the contest.

Charity Begins At Home

This is not to say that one should not help others. But money is finite. And yes, it is wonderful that there are great institutions all over the country promoting religious life, and generally keeping the flame alive.

However, pretty much all of us live near our own institutions. They might not be household names all over the world, and they may not "help" get our kids married if it ever comes out that we support them, but they need us.

The organizations that feed and clothe the poor, help the sick, educate children with disabilities, run volunteer ambulance services, and also just plain old schools in our neighborhoods need immediate attention.

They may not be a marquee names, but they deserve top billing on our charity ledgers.

A Paler Shade of MBB

As the health care bill nears the vote which could make it law, I'm sure that this and other blogs will have plenty to say about it.

For now, I'd just like to point out one lesser-known provision of the current iteration of the bill.

In order to help raise the revenues needed to fund this massive bill, visits to tanning salons will be subject to a 10% tax.

On the surface, this seems innocuous, but I've got a real problem with it.

As those who know me are aware, I'm a very light-skinned individual, even by general Caucasian standards. A graduate school classmate of mine once referred to me as "the whitest man I've ever seen."

My pigmentation is such that when I am exposed to the sun for prolonged periods of time, I tend to burn, not tan. This fact was driven home one day several years ago, when I went to an amusement park on a very sunny, late-April day with FBB and the kids, and came home with my head looking like an overripe tomato.

So, if I were to decide to get a nice, golden tan, I'd have no viable option other than to visit one of the 20,000 tanning salons currently operating in the United States (approximately 17,000 of which are located in New Jersey). Now, however, my to-tan-or-not-to-tan decision will be further clouded by the prospect of paying a 10% tax, in which case I'd probably decide to remain pale.

I never dreamed that in 2009, in "post-racial" America, I'd be discriminated against due to the color of my skin.

Wheeee!

So my very generous and lovely in-laws got my kids a Wii for Chanukah. (I personally don't do the gift thing, but I can't get others to share my sentiment). Since it's Chanukah, there's no homework, and the kids don't so much learning on the days they have school, so they've been in the basement using the Wii. I see them at mal time, candle lighting time, and when I finally send them to bed.

Hmmm, maybe we should have gotten one sooner.

So, I met a friend of mine the other day and she asked what we did on vacation. I told her my kids got a Wii on Sunday, so on Monday we went to buy a TV to play it on.

My friend (MF)asked me (FBB): "why didn't you just get a Wii screen?

FBB: "What IS that?"

MF: I don't know, my neighbor went to Costco and got a Wii screen

FBB (smiling): Yeah, it's called a TV.

MF: Really? it's big and flat?

FBB: Yup!

So I have a Wii with a neighborhood approved Wii Screen (patent pending).

Just don't tell Vizio.

Don't Worry, It Won't Become a Habit

Really.

Even though I am about to relate a Cheese Eater story (though it's time for a new moniker, her cheese consumption has dropped, like a ball through Braylon Edwards hands!!), I will try not to do this regularly.

I was just so taken by the way language is perceived by those who are new to it.

I was lifting her out of a shopping cart to put her in the car, and she hooked one arm around my neck. She then informed me:

"I am not holding you too tight. I am holding you One tight, because I am holding my gum."

The Copenhagen Solution

Rejoice, my fellow humans!

Soon, our parched lips will be moistened by a life-affirming sip from our Cup of Salvation!

In other words, the United Nations' Climate Change Conference has begun in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Surely, you've heard about this Conference, a gathering of our most brilliant minds, who will set out to cure our planet's sundry ills. A veritable intellectual smorgasbord, featuring politicians, "scientists," and bored elitists, who primarily define "human suffering" as instances when the Chianti is not chilled to the proper temperature.

Oh, the thrill of sharing a scientific classification with such Superhumans!

Without question, the delegates to this conference have plenty of items on their agenda. They need to fix the Planet, properly blame and punish Man, fetch a cocktail or three, and get to the buffet before the line gets too long. Just typing that last sentence tired me out. I can't imagine actually doing all of that work.

However, I need to add to your already-ambitious agenda, oh Protectors of the Planet. As many have said, this conference represents humankind's last chance. As such, I need to add the following items, representing my personal environmental concerns, to the list of Problems for which you must find Solutions.

(1) I've lived in my current home for nearly 11 years, and there are still significantly-sized bald patches in my front lawn. If you people can figure out how to make grass grow in those areas, I'd be much obliged.

(2) In addition, from time to time, I find empty soda cans or food wrappers on my front lawn. This angers me greatly, and I often think violent thoughts, until I remember than I'm a post-confrontational neo-pacifist. Got any ideas? I was thinking of proposing the eradication of the human race, but that seems so bourgeoisie.

(3) I'm not sure how this happened, but over the past several months, my bedroom closet has become embarrassingly cluttered. It's a bit of an eyesore. Do you have someone who could assist me with this?

(4) I'm having a devil of a time removing any oil-based stains from my cotton shirts. Any pointers?

(5) I've been hearing about the rapidly disappearing polar ice cap, and to be honest, perhaps I haven't taken it seriously enough. Well now, the issue is hitting closer to home. For the past three days, the ice dispenser on the soda fountain at the local 7-11 has been out of order. That's right, Bjorn, I said THREE DAYS. The soda is still cold, but not cold enough. I can certainly tell the difference. Unlike the "climate change" you're trying to stop, the change in soda temperature is statistically significant, and there's a clearly established causal relationship between the broken ice dispenser and the lower soda temperature. Simply put, SODA WARMING IS THE SINGLE GREATEST THREAT FACING MANKIND TODAY. Or at least, me. How about sending someone over with a socket wrench to fix that thing, pronto?

Oh, and don't forget to bring me some Danish.

Empty

There are often stories in the news about public figures with very private failings. The 24 hour news cycles and internet beast not only circulate stories, but fan the flames to ensure a juicy one stays alive for more ratings days, and more website hits.

Invariably, there will be stories and hand wringing discussions about role models, and failures, and disappointments. The problem is the pedestal that was original created for the man who has athletic prowess, or the woman who acts or sings well. At what point was it decided that "public figure" equals "role model?" In this culture of celebrity, you only need to be well known to be considered an authority by those who cynically will put you on the air to pad their own pockets by improving ratings, thus beginning a cycle in which you start to be taken semi-seriously, when in reality there is not there, there.

When will people learn.

Celebrities and athletes need to be seen as a diversion, an entertainment, and we need to find role models among people we really know, whose flaws are obvious. Why do people really still think they know celebrities, and why do they assume that a "very private" celebrity is one they know anything about? Celebrities will always disappoint since so much of their lives is unknown to most people, it's bound to end up not being what the "fans" want or expect.

I don't think role models should be perfect, if they were there would be no hope for us "mere mortals," but with celebrities we will always be blindsided by their shortcomings, because we never seem to expect or notice then until they blow up.

Real life people disappoint as well, but generally speaking when we look up to someone, we know where their shortcomings are, and though things will upset us when done by those we admire and trust, there's a history of behaviors and interactions that counteract the slips.

I'd venture to say the culture of celebrity has seeped so firmly into societal norms that no community is immune. In a community where there aren't "typical" celebrities, the wealthy take on that role, or perhaps it is foisted upon them. People talk about them, discuss their lives, mention encounters. There's no money spilling out of their pockets, so what makes them so interesting? What makes people NEED to name drop? Celebrity status. If a person davens with a wealthy guy he is that much closer to the wealthy man's celebrity, and celebrity seems to be what everybody wants.

Sad.

Do Whats You Gotta Do

This week I had parent teacher conferences for both the younger kids (1st, 4th, 7th) and the next night, the older kids (9th and 10th), and I noticed something.

Some parents just don't like to go to conferences. They just don't have the patience to wait on lines, and sit with the person or people who spend the majority of the day/week year with their kids, for even 3 minutes.

Now I understand that if a kid is a behavior problem or has issues of any kind you may not want to go and be inundated with abuse (especially at the departmental level), but I'm talking about other parents.

Parents of good kids, good students, who will skip teachers or set a stop time to leave no matter how many teachers they miss. Come on, it's a few nights a year, they're your kids, and generally it means a lot to them to have their "worlds collide,"as teacher and parent sit down to talk.

There was one mother on line in high school who announced that she told her kid, "pick one teacher, and that's all I'll go see." The mother was annoyed that the teacher her daughter picked was the one with the longest line. But, she was only seeing one teacher. Though this woman was reallly complaining. I know the kid, she's a good student, no issues. Granted, the mother may have a large family and be busy, but, and I know I don't know all the facts, just spend a little time with this.

Maybe I'm deluding myself. Maybe it makes no difference to the teachers, principals or kids. Well, then I got a night out seeing lots of other parents I know, and free soda to boot.